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Over the next twenty years, the vast majority of the world’s population growth will occur in the developing world, in nations least capable of supporting it politically, environmentally, or economically. The developed world will face its own set of challenges, including declining populations, rising aging segments, and changing migration patterns. It is difficult to imagine the remarkable changes that have occurred historically when it comes to population. By the time Christopher Columbus reached the New World, global population had reached about 500 million. [1] By July 1, 2009, total population had increased by a factor of over thirteen, to 6.8 billion—the majority of this growth occuring between the end of the Second World War and the present. [2] By 2025, global population will likely reach eight billion; and by 2050 there will be around 9.15 billion people on Earth. [3] This addition of some 2.4 billion people (6.8 billion to nearly 9.2 billion from July 2009 to 2050) to the global family will strain economic and social systems and put unprecedented pressure on the allocation of scarce resources.
Developing Countries
Eight countries are expected to account for the majority (52.3%) of the world’s population in 2050. Seven of these countries (India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Brazil) are from what we now call the developing world. [4] Over the next twenty years, eighty percent of population growth will occur in countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia—some of the poorest, least stable parts of the world. The population in the least developed countries—those forty-nine countries defined by the United Nations as the world's poorest [5] —is expected to double by the middle of the century, from 0.84 billion in 2008 to a projected 1.7 billion in 2050.
The negative effects of disease only confound the numbers problem. HIV/AIDS, in particular, has devastated these parts of the world. The HIV/AIDS pandemic has plucked working adults out of their prime, leaving behind millions of orphaned children, and torn a hole in the social fabric of these nations. Here, the youngest segment of the population, newborns to fourteen year olds, comprises nearly forty percent of the population. Compare this to only twenty percent in North America and Western Europe. Countries in the Middle East and Africa also have extremely high youth dependency ratios (the percentage of young people dependent upon the working age population) that limit economic growth by forcing governments to devote a high percentage of their resources to social programs for families. [6] History alerts us to the dangers of a teeming youth population. Countries that experience instability, terrorism, and violence often have some of the youngest populations on the planet.
Developed Countries and Aging
In much of the developed world, population levels are plateauing. Into the next decade, some developed countries will begin to experience serious population decline. By 2025, at least twenty countries, primarily in eastern Europe, will be less populous than they are today. [17] This phenomenon will lead to a global generation gap felt most heavily in Japan and Western Europe. By 2030, one in four (25.8%) persons in Western Europe will be over the age of sixty-five; in 1950, the corresponding number was one out of every ten (10.2%). [7] Advances in science and technology have allowed many to enjoy longer life spans than their parents and grandparents ever imagined. However, when a population grays and shrinks at the same time, as will be the case in large parts of the developed world, profound social, economic, and political changes are the inevitable result. In these countries, an increasing share of taxes will go to the rising cost of entitlement spending for the elderly. As the work force shrinks, gross domestic product will also contract, further limiting the ability of governments to make good on social spending. With time, these aging nations will be forced to look beyond their borders for young laborers, setting the stage for seismic social and cultural shifts. [8]
Migration and Urbanization
People will move into urban centers in higher numbers in pursuit of higher paying jobs and better access to services. By 2050, nearly seventy percent of the world’s population will live in cities, representing an influx of 3.1 billion people over the next forty years. [9] While urbanization presents an opportunity for rural workers to modernize their skills and improve their lives, if governments are unable to support such growth, rampant urban poverty could result. Migration from the countryside may also threaten food security, as a smaller number of farmers will be producing agricultural goods for a larger number of urbanites incapable of growing their own food. While some move out of the countryside, others will leave their countries of origin all together. The poor will continue to immigrate to richer countries, though they may do so in higher numbers as developed countries become more desperate for working aged adults. Governments in the developed world may face reprisals, however, if they are unable to reconcile the needs and desires of their native population with the needs and desires of immigrant groups.
Erik Peterson on Population
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