Have we reached or surpassed the limits of sustainability?  What will it take to support a global population of some 9.2 billion by the middle of the century?  To begin addressing these questions, one must look at the strategic resources of food, water, and energy and the complex inter-linkages that exist between them.  How leaders meet the challenge of managing these resources will have a significant impact on economic development, poverty reduction, social welfare, geopolitics, and stability and security the world over.

Food

Thanks to advances made in agricultural technology in the second half of the 20th century, farmers have dramatically increased their crop yields, helping the world avert a once predicted fate of mass starvation and malnutrition. [21]   Despite this progress, the world is nearing a point of diminishing returns.  Poor land management and the overuse of fertilizers are causing land degradation, soil erosion, and desertification on a massive scale in agricultural areas from the Amazon to the Yangtze.  Degradation, on top of sharp increases in food prices over the past decade, has left many in the developing world without the land to grow their own food or the means to purchase it at market.  The dual forces of rising oil prices and increased production of biofuels have exacerbated this problem by increasing the supply-side cost to farmers, in addition to diverting staple crops away from kitchen tables.    Water availability—agricultural use accounts for seventy percent of freshwater withdrawals—as well as biotechnology will play key roles in our ability to expand food production. [1]   The task is daunting, however, as food demand is projected to grow seventy to ninety percent by 2050. [2]

Water

According to John Hamre, President of CSIS, “What is now a global water challenge will soon become a global water crisis.” [22]   Almost four billion people will live in areas of high water stress by 2030 if governments and individuals do not change their habits and use this finite resource more responsibly. [3] Currently, over 880 million people, or one out of every eight individuals, live without safe or reliable access to water. [4]   Inadequate access to water is linked to malnutrition, underdevelopment, and geopolitical instability, and these problems will likely persist into the coming decades unless we dramatically change our perceptions of this resource.  The scarcity problem is only compounded by the predicted rise of the rest – developing nations like China and India -- and their growing appetites for consumption.  The affluent use upwards of 660 gallons of water per day, for their personal use and in the production of the products they buy, when only 13.2 gallons per person are required for survival. [5][6]   Future water shortages could significantly hinder economic development and precipitate serious conflicts across the world.

Energy

Volatile oil prices and supply disruptions have led to international spats verging on geopolitical crises in recent years, and it is likely that tensions will flare again in the future if world energy demand grows as anticipated - forty-five percent by 2030.  By that time, fossil fuels will account for eighty percent of our energy consumption. [7]   Despite continued pressures on the physical environment, oil will remain king and only modest advances will be made in the area of renewable energy resources.  Aggregate increases in alternative sources of energy will be offset by high consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas driven by the astronomical rise of China and India.  Together, these two countries will be responsible for over half of the increase in energy demand by 2050. [8]   Governments and private companies across the world are pouring money into energy development projects in order to keep up with domestic demand and to capitalize on burgeoning industries.  One major study found that the United States is capable of producing enough biomass derived ethanol—ninety billion gallons—to displace nearly a third of gasoline use each year by 2030, though with tremendous upfront costs that make little sense when oil prices are low. [9]  

Our addiction to hydrocarbons comes at a great cost to the environment.  Recent evidence suggests that our penchant for petroleum may inflict irreversible damage, with one study finding that carbon dioxide emissions may affect climate systems thousands of years into the future. [10]   A truly global plan of action to address climate change remains elusive, and it may become increasingly difficult for nations to cooperate if oil wells start to run dry.

Erik Peterson on Resource Management

To learn more, please click here.