We are entering an era in which science fiction is looking more like science fact.  Computers are becoming faster and even more ubiquitous, medical breakthroughs are prolonging and enriching our lives, and machines are becoming smaller and smaller by the day. Leaders across the world are looking to technology to solve a number of the most daunting crises we face today in areas as diverse as climate change, resource scarcity, and global health. At the same time, as new technologies become embedded in our lives, we will be forced to address issues of privacy, discrimination, and even basic human interaction. [1]  Technology will increasingly test the ability of individuals, cultures, and governments to adapt to new opportunities and respond to new threats.  

Computation

Today’s computers are breaking performance records and they are doing so at an exponentially faster rate.  IBM’s Roadrunner computer achieves computational capacities of 1.105 petaflops (1,105 quadrillion calculations per second), making it the most powerful supercomputer in the world and the first to break the petaflop barrier. [2]  This milestone is a testament to the performance heights new computers are reaching, and the history of the supercomputer itself shows the exponential rate at which feats like these are achieved.  In 1961, the first computer able to compute in metaflops was constructed; in 1984 gigaflop speeds were reached; 1997 – teraflops, 2008 – petaflops, and it is predicted that between 2017 and 2019 supercomputers will reach speeds in the exaflops (quintillions of calculations per second) realm. [3][4]  This timeline shows that computers have reached the next highest step in computing power in progressively shorter time periods, a phenomenon first recognized in 1965 by co-founder of Intel, Gordon Moore.  His finding, the eponymous Moore’s Law, states that the number of transistors that can be placed on an integrated circuit doubles every year.  There are physical limitations to circuits as they are constructed today, however, and it is predicted that Moore’s Law will be valid only until 2029, after which time new technology will be required for improvements.[5] 

In addition to achieving higher speeds, computers are becoming even more ubiquitous. Wireless laptops, media players, and cell phones are just a few examples of how technology has become  an integral part of our everyday lives - and not just in the developed world.  The One Laptop per Child Foundation is producing low-cost, high-power laptops for children in developing countries. An astounding 464 million cell phone subscribers live in China. [6]  As materials become smaller, lighter, and less expensive and platforms more user-friendly, computers will become even greater fixtures of our daily lives.

Genetics and Biotechnology

The completion of the Human Genome Project, mapping the roughly 25,000 genes and sequencing the three billion chemical base pairs that make up the human genome, has opened up numerous paths for exploration in biotechnology. [18]   Information gained from this undertaking will pave the way for tailored drug therapies, cleaner energy sources, disease-resistant crops, and more accurate forensic testing.  By 2019, a baby could have his or her genetic code mapped at birth to predict and begin treating future medical conditions. [7]  Some experts believe that these technological advances, combined with a better basic understanding of how the human body works, will allow us to significantly alter our own bodies by incorporating machines into them. This could yield improvements in health and life expectancy as well as mental and physical function. While these advances hold great potential, they also raise questions, from the ethical to the existential.  Is it immoral for a doctor to tell a patient that he is predisposed to a late onset genetic disorder for which there is no cure?  Will the use of biotechnology fundamentally alter what it means to be human?

Nanotechnology

Nanotechnology is not a science in and of itself, but rather an umbrella term used for the study and development of structures, in a variety of fields, that are smaller than one hundred nanometers.  The potential applications for nanotechnology are diverse, ranging from medicine and materials to electronics and energy.  Scientists have already made great strides in the field of nanotechnology with over 800 nano-sized products available to consumers in 2008, mostly in the fields of health and personal fitness. [8]  Micro-electromechanical machines (MEMs), smaller than dust mites and formed out of microscopic gears, chains, and computer chips, are currently deployed in medicine, agriculture, supply chain management, materials science, and manufacturing.  The most promising, and arguably most consequential, application for nanotechnology is synthetic biology – the redesigning of molecular-sized organisms – in what scientists are calling “the next big thing.” [9]  Nanotechnology is also proving to be a lucrative industry, one that by 2015 will contribute an estimated one trillion dollars to the global economy and employ two million workers. [10]  By that time, nanotechnology will have moved from the microscopic level down to a molecular and atomic scale.  Currently, relatively little is understood about the safety risks associated with nanotechnology, a concern that is likely to come to the fore as miniaturization is increasingly employed in the production of consumer goods. 

Erik Peterson on Technology

To learn more, please click here.